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Planning

Financial Planning Under the Cone of Uncertainty

2025-03-23T01:42:45+00:00

I am fascinated by hurricane tracking models.  Strange because I’ve never lived in an area prone to hurricanes.  The cone or funnel shape of the forecast shows the probable path of the storm over 5-7 days.  The “spaghetti” models are also interesting.  These are the individual forecasts that one of the weather supercomputers thinks the storm will take.  Sometimes they cluster together.  Other times they are wildly different.   The forecast improves and the cone narrows as the hurricane progresses and new information is obtained.

Financial Planning Under the Cone of Uncertainty2025-03-23T01:42:45+00:00

Less Wrong Tomorrow

2025-03-23T01:43:04+00:00

Real Financial Planning is not about being right today, it’s about being less wrong tomorrow. Airline pilots know this. For years, every time I met one, I would ask two questions. The first was, “Do you prepare a flight plan for every single flight?” And every pilot I asked answered “Yes.” The second was, “How often does the flight go exactly as you planned?” To which they always answered “Never.”

Less Wrong Tomorrow2025-03-23T01:43:04+00:00
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